A Texas Republican facing a past impeachment trial is locked in a dead-heat Senate race against a Democrat in a state no Democrat has won statewide in over 30 years.
Story Snapshot
- A CBS News/YouGov poll found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 49%, within the margin of error.
- Republican groups spent roughly $274 million backing Paxton, part of a record $544.5 million overall race.
- Paxton survived a 2023 impeachment trial and faces fresh corruption claims from Talarico over a plea deal involving Adam Hoffman.
- President Trump campaigned in Texas three times for Paxton and urged supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot himself.
- Talarico outraised Paxton $64 million to $18 million in the third quarter, fueling a late surge in Democratic spending.
A Toss-Up in Reliably Red Territory
Texas has backed Donald Trump in all three of his presidential runs, giving Ken Paxton a built-in advantage most Republicans can count on. Yet a CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,492 registered voters, taken October 8 through 16, showed James Talarico ahead 51% to 49%. That gap sits inside the poll’s margin of error, meaning the race is effectively tied, not decided.
Much of Paxton’s support comes from voters who back him simply because he’s the Republican on the ballot, because they oppose Talarico, or because they want to stand with President Trump. That’s a coalition built on party loyalty, not necessarily personal enthusiasm. Meanwhile, CBS News reported voters rated Talarico higher on personal character, a soft spot for a nominee trying to lock down his own base.
Record Money Pours Into the Fight
This contest has become the most expensive non-presidential race in American history. CBS News put total advertising spending at $544.5 million, with Republican groups alone spending about $274.1 million to support Paxton. Despite that financial muscle, Talarico still led the polling average by 1.8 percentage points in late October, showing that heavy spending hasn’t guaranteed a Republican edge.
Fundraising numbers flipped the usual script. Talarico’s campaign raised $64 million in the third quarter alone, compared to $18 million for Paxton. That disparity let Talarico’s team flood airwaves even as outside Republican groups tried to close the gap with their own ad dollars.
Paxton’s Impeachment History Still Follows Him
Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 before the Texas Senate acquitted him, a case documented in the state’s legislative archives covering allegations involving his office. That record hasn’t gone away. Talarico has repeatedly invoked it on the trail, calling Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America” and framing the race as a choice between public service and self-interest.
Talarico has also publicly accused Paxton’s office of giving Adam Hoffman an unusually lenient plea deal, and says Paxton refused to turn over records he requested about it. These are allegations from Talarico’s campaign, not independently confirmed findings, but they’ve become a central theme of his closing argument to voters.
Competing Visions on the Ballot
Talarico’s platform calls for a federal public health insurance option, caps on drug costs, and restored Affordable Care Act tax credits. He also wants to ban corporate political action committees and super PACs, end partisan gerrymandering, and impose congressional term limits, arguing Washington itself is broken and needs structural fixes, not just new leadership.
On the economy, Talarico proposes raising corporate taxes to fund an expanded Child Tax Credit and a $15 federal minimum wage. For rural Texas, he’s pitched saving struggling hospitals, expanding broadband, and opposing private-school vouchers, an attempt to peel off conservative-leaning voters frustrated with their own party’s direction.
Turnout Will Likely Decide It
President Trump campaigned in Texas three times for Paxton, telling Republicans to vote as if his own name were on the ballot. That’s a sign Republican strategists worry ordinary midterm turnout won’t be enough to carry Paxton across the finish line. Analysts also point to Latino turnout and suburban voters as potential swing factors that could tip a race this close either way.
Research on political scandal shows that controversy usually hurts a candidate, but the effect depends on partisanship and how much information voters actually have. That helps explain why Paxton remains competitive despite his impeachment history: many Republican voters are weighing party control and national politics more heavily than personal controversy.
Sources:
youtube.com, cbsnews.com, lrl.texas.gov, khou.com, fox26houston.com, bfi.uchicago.edu
