A recent New York Times Siena College poll shows former President Trump is outperforming President Biden by six points with young voters.
The Times acknowledges its surprise at Trump’s lead of 49% to 43% among voters aged 18-29. They reported, “As recently as this summer, a poll with Donald J. Trump leading among young voters would have been eye-popping. Now, it’s increasingly familiar.”
The Times says the change may be due to Biden’s backing of Israel. The news outlet reported that Trump is gaining the support of 21% of young voters who favored Biden in 2020 and aligned more with Palestine than Israel.
Biden maintains a lead of 64-24 among young voters from the Biden ‘20 camp who believe Israel is intentionally harming civilians. This is in contrast to an 84-8 lead among Biden ‘20 voters who do not think Israel is intentionally targeting civilians.
— ᴀᴀʀᴏɴᴊʜɪʟʟ 🤬 (@aaronjhill) December 19, 2023
The Times notes that “nearly every major survey at this point” has Trump surpassing Biden in popularity among young people. However, attributing the shift to Biden’s support for Israel may be questionable, considering Trump is a more vocal advocate for Israel than Biden.
One possibility is that young people might not be fully aware of Trump’s pro-Israel stance.
The latest poll among all registered voters shows Trump leading Biden by two points, with a margin of 46% to 44%. In July, the same poll had the two candidates tied at 43%.
In a previous poll, Biden was ahead of Trump by ten points among young voters, with a margin of 47% to 37%. This shows a substantial 16-point shift toward Trump among the 19-29 age group over the past five months.
The significant event that has occurred between July and now that could have caused the change appears to be the conflict in Israel.
Another possible reason for the shift toward Trump among young people could be attributed to the impact of Bidenomics wearing down on them. Despite efforts from Biden, Democrats, and their media supporters to portray Biden’s economy positively, the reality is that prices are on the rise. Even when there are reports that inflation has slowed, it signifies that prices are still increasing. They are just increasing at a slower rate than before.