Kamala Harris is facing a tougher challenge in the polls against President Donald Trump than her Democratic predecessors, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, did in their respective campaigns. As of August 31, 2024, the Real Clear Polling (RCP) average shows Harris leading Trump by just 1.8 points nationally, a much narrower margin than what both Biden and Clinton had at the same point in their campaigns.
In comparison, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 4.6 points nationally in late August 2016, while Joe Biden had a 6.3-point lead over Trump in 2020. Despite their stronger polling positions, Clinton ultimately lost to Trump, and Biden’s victory in 2020 was far from a landslide, with several swing states decided by narrow margins.
The Electoral College map currently favors Harris by only two electoral votes, which underscores the precariousness of her position. Historically, Trump has outperformed his polling numbers, pulling off an upset in 2016 and nearly doing the same in 2020. The relatively small margin Harris holds could spell trouble as the race progresses, especially given Trump’s track record of closing gaps in the final stretch.
Harris’s struggles are compounded by a lack of media scrutiny compared to Trump, which some argue has shielded her from the full force of public opinion. Despite this, the Democratic National Convention, typically a boost for candidates, seems to have had little impact on her polling numbers.
Adding to Harris’s challenges is her limited media presence. She has participated in only one major interview as the Democratic nominee, appearing on CNN with Dana Bash. In the interview, Harris attempted to reassure voters despite her previous shifts on key issues like immigration and energy policy. Her record as one of the most left-leaning Senators, as ranked by GovTrack in 2019, continues to be a focal point in the campaign, which may be contributing to her difficulties in winning over undecided voters.
With the upcoming debates against Trump, Harris faces the difficult task of closing the polling gap in a race that could once again come down to the wire in key swing states.
