Abortion Poll Suggests Limited Impact On Florida, Arizona Electoral Dynamics

A recent CBS/YouGov poll sheds light on the electoral dynamics in Arizona and Florida, indicating that while the majority of voters support abortion, other issues are much more important to the electorate in the upcoming election, potentially posing challenges for President Biden’s reelection bid.

In Arizona, where 66% of respondents favor abortion legality in all or most cases, former President Donald Trump maintains a lead over Biden with 52% to 47%. Similarly, in Florida, where 65% support abortion rights, Trump leads Biden with 54% to 45%.

Meanwhile, a recent WSJ poll has shown that the majority of Americans (69%) support at least some restrictions on a woman’s “right” to terminate the life of her unborn child.

While abortion has historically been a contentious issue in political campaigns, the poll suggests it may not be a decisive factor in the upcoming election. In both states, voters prioritize other concerns such as the economy, inflation, crime, the state of democracy, and the US-Mexico border over abortion.

In Florida, 89% of respondents consider the economy a major factor, followed by inflation at 84%, the state of democracy at 74%, crime at 69%, gun policy at 60%, and the US-Mexico border at 64%. Similarly, in Arizona, the economy (82%), inflation (78%), the state of democracy (70%), crime (59%) and the US-Mexico border (61%) are considered major factors by voters, overshadowing the importance of abortion.

Despite efforts by the Biden-Harris campaign to engage voters in Florida, including campaign offices and visits by Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the state’s shifting political landscape poses challenges for Democrats.

In Arizona, Republican Senate hopeful Kari Lake trails behind Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), indicating potential challenges for the GOP in the state.

Trump’s evolving stance on abortion, including deferring to states and his recent criticism of Arizona’s abortion laws, underscores the complexity of the issue in electoral politics.

The CBS/YouGov poll, conducted between March 10–16, surveyed 1,510 adults in Arizona and 1,576 adults in Florida, with margins of error of plus or minus 3.3 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively.