Scientists Monitor Oregon’s Axial Seamount As Eruption Signs Grow

Researchers observing an active underwater volcano off the coast of Oregon say an eruption is likely in 2025. Axial Seamount, located approximately 300 miles from land, has shown geological patterns similar to those seen before previous eruptions, leading scientists to expect another event soon.

This submarine volcano is considered the most active in the northeast Pacific and has erupted three times over the last three decades, in 1998, 2011, and 2015. Scientists studying its activity have recorded a gradual buildup of molten rock beneath the surface, a process that has historically preceded its eruptions.

William Chadwick, a research associate at Oregon State University, noted that Axial Seamount’s activity follows a consistent pattern. “It seems to have this pretty repeatable pattern from one eruption to the next,” he said. Instruments installed on the ocean floor provide continuous monitoring of seismic movements and pressure changes, allowing researchers to track its status in real time.

Despite the likelihood of an eruption, experts emphasize there is no threat to people or coastal areas. The volcano sits nearly a mile underwater, and any eruption would not generate surface-level disturbances. “If you were on a boat above the volcano, you wouldn’t know at all that it had erupted,” said Scott Nooner, a professor at the University of North Carolina at Wilmington.

Axial Seamount is a shield volcano, meaning its eruptions produce flowing lava rather than explosive blasts. Scientists use it as a case study for improving volcanic prediction techniques, as monitoring an underwater eruption allows researchers to test forecasting models without causing public alarm.

A team of scientists deployed remotely operated vehicles to the site in June 2024 to gather additional data. The findings will contribute to a long-term effort to enhance eruption predictions, with hopes that these methods can eventually be applied to land-based volcanoes that pose greater risks.