Although Republicans underperformed in the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 congressional elections, they could likely win the Senate in 2024, considering that multiple Democrats in the chamber have announced their intention to step aside.
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced in November 2023 that he would retire from the Senate in 2024.
“After months of deliberation and long conversation with my family, I believe in my heart of hearts that I’ve accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia. I’ve made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate,” the West Virginia senator said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
To the West Virginians who have put their trust in me and fought side by side to make our state better – it has been an honor of my life to serve you. Thank you. My statement on my political future: pic.twitter.com/dz8JuXAyTL
— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 9, 2023
Manchin is just one of many Democrats either retiring or involved in a reelection campaign to retain their Senate seat in 2024. Considering this, alongside President Joe Biden’s growing unpopularity, Republicans have a fair chance at controlling the Senate.
There are 34 scheduled elections in 2024. Democrats will defend 20 seats, while Republicans will attempt to hold 11. Three other seats are currently held by independents who caucus with Democrats. In effect, these are additional seats that the left must retain.
Republicans will be on the attack in 2024. They have an opportunity to pick up twice as many seats from the Democrats.
As of today, Democrats have a razor-thin majority in the Senate, 51-49. Manchin’s retirement from the Senate comes after West Virginia has established itself as one of the most Republican states in the union. Former President Donald Trump defeated Biden by 39 points in the Mountain State during the 2020 presidential election.
West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) is currently leading the GOP primary in his state to win Manchin’s Senate seat. Democrats are scrambling to find a new nominee that could defeat Justice, but such efforts may prove futile. The Cook Political Report referred to Manchin’s soon-to-be-vacated seat as “solid Republican.”
Of the 11 Senate seats Republicans are defending, Cook Political Report labeled nine of them as “solid Republican” and two, in Texas and Florida, as “likely Republican.”
For Democrats, they are likely to retain 15 Senate States. Only four states “lean” Democrat: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Democrats will have to battle to keep their Senate seats in Arizona, Montana, and Ohio, which are considered “toss-ups.”