Polls Show Democrats Falling Behind With Black Voters

While Black voters have been historically aligned with the Democratic Party, recent polls suggest that Black voters are not as sure about Democrats as they once were.

In 2022, an average of five recent live interview polls showed Democrats with a 74% to 12% edge over Republicans among Black voters. The 62-point margin appears vast, but when you compare it with the average of the final five live interview polls of 2020, which showed a 75-point advantage for Democrats, the picture is a bit different.

In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats had a lead over Republicans in live interview polls with Black Americans by a margin of 85% to 9%, a difference of 76%.

The current margin is 14% lower than the last midterm polls, representing a drastic decline in confidence among the Black voter base.

The situation is similar when it comes to President Joe Biden’s approval rating among Black Americans. While he enjoyed an approval rating of over 80% when first elected, that number had dropped to 67% earlier this year, and now stands at 64%.

While a 64% approval rating far exceeds Biden’s approval rating among all voters, the decline is illustrative of a shifting trend among Black voters.

Notably, only 62% of Black Americans approve of Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives in this year’s election. If this figure translates to the voter booth, it would represent the lowest approval rating among Black voters in 32 years.

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten commented on the trend among Black voters.

“Look, they’re still getting 74% support in the pre-election polling right now but compare that to the final polling for 2020 President and 2018 Congress,” he stated. “In 2020 it was 84%, 85% in 2018.”

Black voters played a key role in the 2020 presidential election, putting Biden over the top in key battleground states, such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With these states now gearing up for midterm elections, the Black voter base may just be the deciding factor once again.